Model-Informed Drug Development Approaches to Assist New Drug Development in the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Leveraging limited clinical and nonclinical data through modeling approaches facilitates new drug development and regulatory decision making amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Model-informed drug development (MIDD) is an essential tool to integrate those data and generate evidence to (i) provide support for effectiveness in repurposed or new compounds to combat COVID-19 and dose selection when clinical data are lacking; (ii) assess efficacy under practical situations such as dose reduction to overcome supply issues or emergence of resistant variant strains; (iii) demonstrate applicability of MIDD for full extrapolation to adolescents and sometimes to young pediatric patients; and (iv) evaluate the appropriateness for prolonging a dosing interval to reduce the frequency of hospital visits during the pandemic. Ongoing research activities of MIDD reflect our continuous effort and commitment in bridging knowledge gaps that leads to the availability of effective treatments through innovation. Case examples are presented to illustrate how MIDD has been used in various stages of drug development and has the potential to inform regulatory decision making.

Whole Body PBPK Modeling of Remdesivir and Its Metabolites to Aid in Estimating Active Metabolite Exposure in the Lung and Liver in Patients With Organ Dysfunction.

Remdesivir (RDV) is the first drug approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in certain patients requiring hospitalization. As a nucleoside analogue prodrug, RDV undergoes intracellular multistep activation to form its pharmacologically active species, GS-443902, which is not detectable in the plasma. A question arises that whether the observed plasma exposure of RDV and its metabolites would correlate with or be informative about the exposure of GS-443902 in tissues. A whole body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation approach was utilized to elucidate the disposition mechanism of RDV and its metabolites in the lungs and liver and explore the relationship between plasma and tissue pharmacokinetics (PK) of RDV and its metabolites in healthy subjects. In addition, the potential alteration of plasma and tissue PK of RDV and its metabolites in patients with organ dysfunction was explored. Our simulation results indicated that intracellular exposure of GS-443902 was decreased in the liver and increased in the lungs in subjects with hepatic impairment relative to the subjects with normal liver function. In subjects with severe renal impairment, the exposure of GS-443902 in the liver was slightly increased, whereas the lung exposure of GS-443902 was not impacted. These predictions along with the organ impairment study results may be used to support decision making regarding the RDV dosage adjustment in these patient subgroups. The modeling exercise illustrated the potential of whole body PBPK modeling to aid in decision making for nucleotide analogue prodrugs, particularly when the active metabolite exposure in the target tissues is not available.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Repurposing Drug Database: Clinical Pharmacology Considerations.

A critical step to evaluate the potential in vivo antiviral activity of a drug is to connect the in vivo exposure to its in vitro antiviral activity. The Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Repurposing Drug Database is a database that includes both in vitro anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity and in vivo pharmacokinetic data to facilitate the extrapolation from in vitro antiviral activity to potential in vivo antiviral activity for a large set of drugs/compounds. In addition to serving as a data source for in vitro anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity and in vivo pharmacokinetic information, the database is also a calculation tool that can be used to compare the in vitro antiviral activity with in vivo drug exposure to identify potential anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs. Continuous development and expansion are feasible with the public availability of this database.

Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak.

The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.